Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 125,476
2 South Dakota 118,618
3 Utah 99,845
4 Rhode Island 98,590
5 Tennessee 97,154
6 Wisconsin 96,843
7 Iowa 96,329
8 Nebraska 93,620
9 Arizona 91,032
10 Kansas 88,969
11 Arkansas 88,685
12 Oklahoma 87,957
13 Indiana 87,074
14 Idaho 86,614
15 Alabama 85,154
16 Wyoming 84,506
17 Nevada 83,908
18 Illinois 83,817
19 Mississippi 83,392
20 Montana 83,015
21 Minnesota 78,662
22 Louisiana 78,483
23 New Mexico 77,166
24 Missouri 75,753
25 California 74,336
26 Georgia 73,133
27 South Carolina 73,021
28 Kentucky 72,634
29 Texas 72,304
30 Florida 72,077
31 Delaware 70,578
32 Alaska 69,938
33 Ohio 69,675
34 New Jersey 69,361
35 Massachusetts 66,728
36 Colorado 64,883
37 North Carolina 63,072
38 Connecticut 62,665
39 New York 62,362
40 West Virginia 59,509
41 Pennsylvania 59,408
42 Michigan 57,905
43 Maryland 53,083
44 Virginia 49,514
45 District of Columbia 46,957
46 New Hampshire 40,817
47 Washington 38,121
48 Puerto Rico 37,439
49 Oregon 31,129
50 Maine 24,386
51 Hawaii 16,973
52 Vermont 15,599

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 1,092
2 Utah 1,088
3 South Carolina 1,075
4 California 1,023
5 Kansas 978
6 Rhode Island 959
7 Kentucky 909
8 Texas 894
9 Arkansas 892
10 Oklahoma 891
11 Louisiana 854
12 Georgia 849
13 Massachusetts 841
14 New York 828
15 New Jersey 800
16 Delaware 780
17 North Carolina 736
18 Mississippi 697
19 Tennessee 695
20 Florida 691
21 Alabama 658
22 West Virginia 640
23 Indiana 628
24 Idaho 617
25 Ohio 613
26 New Mexico 609
27 Maine 608
28 Connecticut 596
29 Nevada 579
30 New Hampshire 576
31 Virginia 573
32 Pennsylvania 555
33 Nebraska 554
34 Illinois 501
35 Iowa 493
36 Wisconsin 493
37 Montana 482
38 Wyoming 482
39 Maryland 462
40 South Dakota 449
41 Missouri 431
42 Colorado 420
43 Alaska 419
44 District of Columbia 338
45 Michigan 326
46 Washington 303
47 North Dakota 282
48 Minnesota 277
49 Oregon 277
50 Vermont 260
51 Puerto Rico 159
52 Hawaii 108

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,287
2 New York 2,066
3 Massachusetts 1,959
4 Rhode Island 1,892
5 Connecticut 1,849
6 South Dakota 1,841
7 North Dakota 1,830
8 Mississippi 1,818
9 Louisiana 1,738
10 Illinois 1,568
11 Arizona 1,519
12 Pennsylvania 1,482
13 Michigan 1,455
14 Arkansas 1,412
15 Indiana 1,373
16 New Mexico 1,371
17 Iowa 1,349
18 Alabama 1,229
19 Tennessee 1,205
20 Kansas 1,202
21 Nevada 1,202
22 District of Columbia 1,193
23 South Carolina 1,172
24 Texas 1,110
25 Florida 1,108
26 Georgia 1,107
27 Missouri 1,078
28 Maryland 1,074
29 Minnesota 1,049
30 Delaware 1,028
31 Montana 1,016
32 Wisconsin 991
33 Nebraska 978
34 West Virginia 966
35 Colorado 940
36 Wyoming 901
37 Idaho 898
38 Ohio 860
39 California 833
40 North Carolina 762
41 Kentucky 759
42 Oklahoma 739
43 New Hampshire 667
44 Virginia 662
45 Puerto Rico 529
46 Washington 521
47 Utah 460
48 Oregon 417
49 Maine 354
50 Alaska 300
51 Vermont 261
52 Hawaii 222

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alabama 31
2 Kansas 28
3 Arizona 23
4 Pennsylvania 23
5 West Virginia 18
6 Nevada 16
7 South Dakota 16
8 Arkansas 15
9 California 15
10 Georgia 14
11 Mississippi 14
12 Tennessee 14
13 Connecticut 13
14 North Dakota 13
15 Texas 13
16 New Mexico 12
17 Massachusetts 11
18 Rhode Island 11
19 South Carolina 11
20 New Jersey 10
21 New York 10
22 Oklahoma 10
23 Illinois 9
24 North Carolina 9
25 District of Columbia 8
26 Florida 8
27 Idaho 8
28 Kentucky 8
29 Michigan 8
30 Indiana 7
31 Louisiana 7
32 Maryland 7
33 Minnesota 7
34 Nebraska 7
35 New Hampshire 7
36 Ohio 7
37 Oregon 7
38 Wisconsin 7
39 Maine 6
40 Missouri 6
41 Virginia 6
42 Colorado 5
43 Montana 5
44 Utah 5
45 Puerto Rico 4
46 Washington 4
47 Delaware 3
48 Iowa 3
49 Hawaii 2
50 Vermont 2
51 Alaska 1
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 285,431 1 99
Dewey South Dakota 229,803 2 99
Bent Colorado 226,645 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 226,198 4 99
Norton Kansas 222,533 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 112,758 269 91
Richland South Carolina 74,012 1598 49
Orange California 68,623 1856 40
York South Carolina 67,122 1922 38
Pierce Washington 35,144 2870 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Grant Nebraska 6,421 4 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,330 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 942 1865 40
Richland South Carolina 873 1968 37
Orange California 717 2218 29
York South Carolina 715 2221 29
Pierce Washington 459 2604 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons